Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona is up on Masters by nearly 10 percentage points. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire is breathing more easily as Republicans seem poised to nominate Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general who has embraced Trump’s conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia has benefited from revelations that his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, fathered several previously undisclosed children and threatened his ex-wife with a gun. Even Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, widely assumed to be the most endangered Democratic incumbent this year, is ahead in most polls against Adam Laxalt, the Republican nominee.
The other big Senate races may be a different story.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman seems to have Dr. Mehmet Oz’s number in Pennsylvania, where both men are running to replace Senator Pat Toomey, a Republican who is retiring. Fetterman has been torturing Oz, the celebrity surgeon, with memes and posts about his multiple homes and his thin ties to Pennsylvania. Fetterman is slowly recovering from a stroke he suffered in May, and he recently returned to the campaign trail. But his health could be a political liability with general-election voters in a way that it wasn’t during the Democratic primary, and Oz seems determined to make it so.
Vance should be able to dispatch Representative Tim Ryan in Ohio, a state that has become solidly Republican in recent elections. On the other hand, Republicans wouldn’t be pouring an extra $20 million into that race if they were fully confident in Vance’s chances.
And in Wisconsin, many centrist Democrats fret that Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee, has taken some left-wing positions that could keep him from defeating Senator Ron Johnson despite the latter’s dismal approval ratings. For now, however, Barnes is ahead.
One wild card that has entered the discussion among political insiders since a ballot initiative in Kansas: abortion. Earlier this month, voters in that state surprised many analysts by roundly defeating a measure that would have curtailed abortion rights — a political earthquake that led many Democrats to wonder if they had been underestimating the political potency of the issue, especially among women.
Democrats have a forgiving map this year: They just need to hang on to all five battleground seats to maintain control of the Senate, though they would also love to pick up Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which gives them a little more room for error.
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